War in Somalia (2006–2009)

War in Somalia (2006–2009)
Part of the Somali Civil War and War on Terrorism
Situation of the war in Somalia February 3rd 2009.
Date December 20, 2006 – January 30, 2009 Location Southern Somalia Status Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) political victory Overthrow of ICU government in Mogadishu TFG and Ethiopian IRB soldiers temporarily establish control over Mogadishu and southern Somalia (2006–2008) Emergence of Islamist insurgency by PRM Islamists re-take Mogadishu & much of southern and central Somalia, including the TFG headquarters at Baidoa, which was seized by Al-Shabaab (2008-2009) Ethiopian troops withdraw from the country Power sharing deal signed between TFG and ARS Islamists, ARS gains political control of TFG and the ARS splinters Moderate Islamist leader Sharif Ahmed becomes new Somali president Civil war continues with the conflict between radical and moderate Islamists Eventually, enforcement of Sharia Law
Belligerents
Invasion: Islamic Courts Union Insurgency: Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia al-Shabaab Ras Kamboni Brigades Jabhatul Islamiya Muaskar Anole Alleged: Al-Qaeda and other foreign mujahideen  Eritrea	Ethiopia Transitional Federal Government  Puntland Galmudug pro-Ethiopian warlords Sufi groups[1]  United States  United Kingdom AMISOM  Uganda  Burundi  Kenya  Nigeria  Ghana  Malawi[2]
Commanders and leaders
Sharif Ahmed Hassan Aweys[3] Yusuf Indacade Fuad Mohamed Qalaf Adan Ayrow   † Abu Mansur Hasan Turki Mohamed Ibrahim Hayle Mukhtar Abu Ali Aisha Ali Saleh Nabhan	Meles Zenawi Gabre Heard Siraj Fergessa Kuma Demeksa Samora Yunis Bacha Debele Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed(In Exile) Mohamed Omar Habeb (P.O.W.)(Incarcerated by ARS Coalition) Abdi Hasan Awale Abdirisak Afgadud Mohamud Muse Hersi Patrick M. Walsh Bruce Williams
Strength
8,000 ICU militants Alleged forces:[4] 3,000, 4,000 or 8,000 foreign militants[5][6][7] 2,000 Eritreans  Eritrea[8][9]	Somalia: 10,000 soldiers[10] Ethiopia:10,000 soldiers[11] AMISOM: 5,250 soldiers
Casualties and losses
6,000-8,000 killed[12][13] 7,000 wounded (Ethiopian claim)[14][15]	Ethiopia: 2,773 dead (375 killed in action)[16] Somalia (TFG): 891+ killed 15,000 deserted[17] Uganda: 7 killed Kenya: 6 killed Burundi: 2 killed Total:3,679+ killed
Civilian casualties: 16,724 killed[18] 1,9 million displaced[19] 2008 civilian casualties; 7,674 civilians [20] (see Casualties section)

The War in Somalia was an armed conflict involving largely Ethiopian and Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces and Somali troops from Puntland versus the Somali Islamist umbrella group, the Islamic Court Union (ICU), and other affiliated militias for control of the country. There is a clear connection between War in Somalia (2009–) and the War of 2006. The war officially began shortly before July 20, 2006 when U.S. backed Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia to prop up the TFG in Baidoa^[21]. The TFG in Somalia invited Ethiopians to intervene, which became an "unpopular decision" that failed to strengthen the government.^[22] Subsequently the leader of the ICU, Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, declared "Somalia is in a state of war, and all Somalis should take part in this struggle against Ethiopia".^[23] On December 24, Ethiopia stated it would actively combat the ICU.^[24]

Ethiopia's prime minister, Meles Zenawi, said Ethiopia entered hostilities because it faced a direct threat to its own borders. “Ethiopian defense forces were forced to enter into war to protect the sovereignty of the nation,” he said. “We are not trying to set up a government for Somalia, nor do we have an intention to meddle in Somalia's internal affairs. We have only been forced by the circumstances.”^[25]

The ICU, which controlled the coastal areas of southern Somalia, engaged in fighting with the forces of the Somali TFG, and the autonomous regional governments of Puntland and Galmudug, all of whom were backed by Ethiopian troops. The outbreak of heavy fighting began on December 20 with the Battle of Baidoa, after the lapse of a one-week deadline the ICU imposed on Ethiopia (on December 12) to withdraw from the nation.^[26] Ethiopia, however, refused to abandon its positions around the TFG interim capital at Baidoa. On December 29, after several successful battles, TFG and Ethiopian troops entered Mogadishu relatively unopposed. The UN also stated that many Arab nations including Egypt were also supporting the ICU through Eritrea. Although not announced until later, a small number of U.S. special forces troops accompanied Ethiopian and TFG troops after the collapse and withdrawal of the ICU to give military advice and to track suspected al-Qaida fighters.^[27] Both American support for the TFG and various Arab Nations' support for the ICU were isolated cases from the central motive of the war between the allied Ethiopian & Somali government forces and the allied ICU & Eritrean forces.

As of January 2007, Ethiopia said it would withdraw "within a few weeks"^[28] but the TFG, US and UN officials oppose Ethiopian withdrawal because it would create a "security vacuum," while the ICU has demanded immediate Ethiopian withdrawal.^[29]

The two sides had traded war declarations and gun fire on several occasions before. Eastern African countries and international observers fear the Ethiopian offensive may lead to a regional war, involving Eritrea, which has a complex relationship with Ethiopia and whom Ethiopia claims to be a supporter of the ICU.^[30]

As of January 2009, Ethiopian troops withdrew from Somalia following a two year insurgency which lead to loss of territory and effectiveness of the TFG and a power sharing deal between Islamists splinter group led by Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed's Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) and TFG Prime Minister Nur Hassan in Djibouti. The al Shabaab who has separated from the ICU rejects the peace deal and continued to take territories including Baidoa. Another Islamist group, Ahlu Sunnah Waljama'ah, which is allied to the transitional government and supported by Ethiopia, continues to attack al Shabab and take over towns as well.^[31][32][33]

After the parliament took in 200 officials from the moderate Islamist opposition, ARS leader Sheikh Ahmed was elected TFG President on January 31, 2009.^[34] Since then, the al shabab radical islamists have accused the new TFG President of accepting the secular transitional government and have continued the civil war since he arrived in Mogadishu at the presidential palace.^[35]

Forces involved

Forces involved are difficult to calculate because of many factors, including lack of formal organization or record-keeping, and claims which remained masked by disinformation. Ethiopia for months leading up to the war maintained it had only a few hundred advisors in the country. Yet independent reports indicated far more troops. According to the BBC, "The United Nations estimated that at least 8,000 Ethiopian troops may be in the country while the AP suggests the number closer to 12-15,000,^[36] while regional rival Eritrea has deployed some 2,000 troops in support of the Islamic group."^[9] Ethiopia only admitted to 3,000–4,000 being involved,^[37] though the ICU claimed the Ethiopians had 30,000 troops,^[6] while Eritrea denies having any troops in Somalia.^[38] In addition, the TFG alleged there were up to 8,000 foreign mujahideen fighting on behalf of the ICU, based on the ICU's worldwide appeal for Muslim mujahideen to come fight for their cause.^[7] Somali government troops and allied militias are estimated to be roughly 10,000.^[39]

Background

Historic background

Wars between Somalia, or its precursor Islamic states, and Ethiopia, stretch back to 16th century. For example, Ahmad ibn Ibrihim al-Ghazi was a 16th century Islamic leader popular in Somali culture for his jihad against the Ethiopians during the rise of the Adal Sultanate. The painful living history, oral and cultural traditions, long-standing ethnic divisions and sectarian differences lay a foundation of conflict between the two nations.

More recently, boundary disputes over the Ogaden region date to the 1948 settlement when the land was granted to Ethiopia. Somali disgruntlement with this decision has led to repeated attempts to invade Ethiopia with the hopes of taking control of the Ogaden to create a Greater Somalia. This plan would have reunited the Somali people of the Ethiopian-controlled Ogaden with those living in the Republic of Somalia. These ethnic and political tensions have caused cross-border clashes over the years.

• 1960–1964 Border Dispute
• 1977–1978 Ogaden War
• 1982 August Border Clash^[40][41]
• 1998–2000 Cross-border warfare during the chaotic warlord-led era.^[42]

While it is true the ICU made threats to carry the war into Ethiopia, the circumstances referred to were in part due to prior Ethiopian actions in response to historical conflicts in the region. Before proxy wars between Ethiopia and Eritrea began in the late 1990s, ICU was helping rebels inside Eastern Ethiopia against the Ethiopian government. Thus Ethiopia's involvement in Somalia had begun months before, with the intercession of forces to support the establishment of the transitional government, and to support other regional governments considered more acceptable to Ethiopia so that ICU won't be able to support more insurgents inside Eastern Ethiopia.^[43]

Information warfare, disinformation and propaganda

Even before the beginning of the war, there have been significant assertions and accusations of the use of disinformation and propaganda tactics by various parties to shape the causes and course of the conflict. This includes assertions of falsification of the presence or number of forces involved, exaggeration or minimization of the casualties inflicted or taken, influence or control of media outlets (or shutting them down), and other informational means and media to sway popular support and international opinion.

Prelude to the War

Ethiopian troops moved into Somalian territory on July 20, 2006.^[44]

On August 1, 2006, the ICU sent technicals out towards the Ethiopian border north of Beledweyne. Ethiopian troops were reportedly sent across the border to stop the ICU's advance.^[45]

On October 9, it was reported Ethiopian troops seized Burhakaba.^[46] Another article seemed to indicate the Ethiopian control was a troop convoy passing through. Islamists claim the town reverted to their control after the Ethiopians departed. SomaliNet reports the elders asked the government to leave to avoid bloodshed in their town. The article said it was government troops, and not Ethiopians who had come to the town.^[47][48]

An Ethiopian column of 80 vehicles was hit by landmines and then attacked with gunfire by a group of about 50 troops loyal to the ICU on November 19, 2006, near Berdaale, 30 miles (50 km) west of Baidoa. Six Ethiopians were reported killed in the attack. Two Ethiopian trucks burned and two were overturned.^[49][50][51]

An exchange of mortar shells between Islamic Courts Union and Ethiopian forces occurred in Galkayo, on November 28, 2006, with both Islamists and Ethiopian forces facing off. Ethiopian and Islamist forces in Galkayo, central Somalia, were less than 5 kilometers away from one another.^[52]

On November 30, an Ethiopian military convoy in Somalia was ambushed by fighters loyal to the Islamic Courts Union. Eyewitnesses said a truck was blown up and there was an exchange of fire. The ICU claim 20 soldiers died.^[53] Ethiopia's parliament voted the same day to authorize the government take "all necessary" steps to rebuff any potential invasion by Somalia's Islamists.^[54]

On December 8, 2006, fighters from Somalia's Islamic Courts Union clashed with Somalian government forces, allegedly in cooperation with Ethiopian troops. Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, head of the Islamic Courts, told a crowd in Mogadishu that fighting had started in Dinsor in the south, and called on all Somalis to "stand up and defeat the enemies".^[55] Another official said Ethiopian troops had shelled the town of Bandiradley. The Deputy Defence Minister of the Somali government, Salat Ali Jelle, confirmed the fighting but denied any Ethiopian troops were involved. The Ethiopian government has denied repeated claims that its troops are fighting alongside Somali government militia.

Witnesses in Dagaari village near Bandiradley said that they saw hundreds of Ethiopian troops and tanks take up positions near the town with militiamen from the northeastern semi-autonomous region of Puntland.^[56]

On December 9, fighters from Somalia's Islamic Courts and government soldiers clashed in a second day of fighting. The fighting occurred 40 kilometers from the interim government's headquarters in Baidoa. Mohamed Ibrahim Bilal, an Islamic Courts official, said that the government had launched a counterattack at Rama'addey village, while Ali Mohamed Gedi, the prime minister, claimed that Islamic Courts fighters had attacked government positions.^[57]

On December 13, a Reuters report said that the ICU claimed 30,000 Ethiopian troops were involved in Somalia, while 4,000 foreign fighters were involved on the side of the ICU.^[6] Ethiopia denied having troops other than "military advisors" presen

Timeline

December 2006

• December 19, 2006: Aweys received medical treatment in Egypt just before the beginning of the war against the UN-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Ethiopian troops[18].

• December 20, 2006: Major fighting broke out around the TFG capital of Baidoa. Thirteen trucks filled with Ethiopian reinforcements were reported en route to the fighting. Leaders of both groups briefly kept an option open for peace talks brokered by the EU.^[58]

• December 21, 2006: As the fighting intensified with Ethiopia, he took a flight to an undisclosed location with Yusuf Mohammed Siad Inda'ade, and, rather than news of medical treatment, it was said he was on the hajj[19].

• December 22, 2006: Nearly 20 Ethiopian tanks headed toward the front line. According to government sources Ethiopia had 20 T-55 tanks and four attack helicopters in Baidoa.^[59]

• December 23, 2006: Ethiopian tanks and further reinforcements arrived in Daynuunay, 30 kilometres east of Baidoa; prompting ICU forces to vow all-out war despite a commitment to an EU-brokered peace. Heavy fighting continued in Lidale and Dinsoor.^[60]

December 24, 2006: Ethiopia admitted its troops were fighting the Islamists, after stating earlier in the week it had only sent several hundred military advisors to Baidoa. Heavy fighting erupted in border areas, with reports of air strikes and shelling, including targets near the ICU-held town of Beledweyne. According to Ethiopian Information Minister Berhan Hailu: "The Ethiopian government has taken self-defensive measures and started counter-attacking the aggressive extremist forces of the Islamic Courts and foreign terrorist groups."^[61]

• December 25, 2006: Ethiopian and Somali forces captured Beledweyne. Defending ICU forces fled Beledweyne concurrent to Ethiopian airstrikes against the Mogadishu and Bali-Dogle airports. Heavy fighting was also reported in Burhakaba.^[62]

Ethiopian army T-55 tank near Mogadishu

On December 26, the ICU was in retreat on all fronts, losing much of the territory they gained in the months preceding the Ethiopian intervention. They reportedly fell back to Daynuunay and Mogadishu.^[63]

• December 27, 2006: Ethiopian and Somali government forces were en route to Somalia's capital, Mogadishu after capturing the strategic town of Jowhar, 90 km north from the capital. The ICU were in control of little more than the coast, abandoning many towns without putting up a fight. Also, the ICU top two commanders, defense chief Yusuf Mohammed Siad Inda'ade and his deputy Abu Mansur were away on the Hajj pilgrimage in Mecca.^[64]

After the Fall of Mogadishu to the Ethiopian and government forces on December 28, fighting continued in the Juba River valley, where the ICU retreated, establishing a new headquarters in the city of Kismayo. Intense fighting was reported on December 31 in the Battle of Jilib and the ICU frontlines collapsed during the night to artillery fire, causing the ICU to again retreat, abandoning Kismayo, without a fight and retreating towards the Kenyan border.^[65]

• December 27, 2006: Aweys, along with a group of several hundred fighters from the Hizbul Shabaab wing of the ICU fled Mogadishu, presumably to the former AIAI base at Ras Kamboni[20]. On December 31, 2006, he vowed to fight on, and called for others to create an insurgency against the government. Meanwhile, a heavily armed column of government and Ethiopian troops advanced from Mogadishu through Lower Shabelle towards Kismayo. They reached Bulo Marer (Kurtun Warrey district) and were heading to Baravo[21].

• December 28, 2006: after only six months in power and the defeat of the ICU's army, Ahmed committed himself to fighting the Ethiopian forces in Somalia. After the ICU's defeat in the Battle of Jilib and their abandonment of Kismayo, he fled towards the Kenyan border.

• January 21, 2007: Kenyan police detained Ahmed and three other Somalis near Hulugo border. He met the US Ambassador to Kenya for talks regarding cooperation with the TFG. He was under the protection of Kenyan authorities staying at a hotel in Nairobi.

• February 1, 2007: Sharif Ahmed was released from Kenyan police authorities. By February 8, Sheikh Sharif Sheik Ahmed had gone to Yemen where other ICU members are thought to have also gone.

Regional concern had been heightened since November 2, when the US Embassy in Nairobi issued a terrorist warning of suicide attack threats in Kenya and Ethiopia[17].

About 500 Ethiopian soldiers, 200 Somali soldiers, and 1,000 Insurgents were killed in the fighting in 2006.

2007

Military events in January 2007 focused on the southern section of Somalia, primarily the withdrawal of ICU forces from Kismayo, and their pursuit using Ethiopian air strikes in Afmadow district concurrent to the Battle of Ras Kamboni. During this battle, the U.S. launched an airstrike conducted by an AC-130 gunship against suspected Al-Qaeda operatives. A second airstrike was made after the battle later in January 2007.^[66]

Within a week of the TFG and Ethiopian army’s arrival in Mogadishu, the first insurgent attacks began. Ethiopian and TFG forces responded by sealing off areas around the attack sites and conducting house-to-house searches. The TFG also passed a three-month emergency law in parliament and called for a disarmament of the militias on January 13, 2007. The provisions of the emergency law gave the TFG much wider powers and allowed President Yusuf to rule by decree.

Between January and March 2007, insurgent attacks took several forms: assassinations of government officials, attacks on military convoys, and rocket-propelled grenade or mortar attacks on police stations, TFG and Ethiopian military bases, or other locations or individuals deemed by the insurgency to be political or military targets. For instance, several hotels known to accommodate TFG officials, such as the Ambassador, Global, and Lafweyne Hotels, were repeatedly hit with RPGs and mortar rounds and were the site of attempted assassinations of TFG officials.^[67]

Situation in Somalia in December 2007

The insurgency was mobile, often using hit-and-run tactics in its attacks or setting up and launching mortar rounds within minutes, then melting back into the civilian population.^[67] After an insurgent attack on a convoy or other mobile target, Ethiopian and TFG forces typically sealed off the area and conducted house-to-house searches of the area. The Ethiopian and TFG response to mortar attacks increasingly included the return firing of mortars and rockets in the direction of origin of insurgency fire. In the beginning of March, the first 1,500 African Union Mission to Somalia soldiers begun arriving in Somalia.

By the end of March, the fighting intensified in Mogadishu and more than a thousand people, mostly civilians, were killed. Combat deaths numbered 9 Ethiopian soldiers, 6 Somali soldiers, and an unknown number of insurgents. Hawiye clan militiamen allied with the Islamists clashed with TFG and Ethiopian troops.

After the end of that battle in April in which heavy weapons were used and turned parts of Mogadishu into ashes, the allied forces of Somalia and Ethiopia were said to have won over the local insurgents. Since May 2007 it has been increasingly apparent that the March and April fighting did not stem the insurgency. The insurgents started a low level but very effective violence campaign including suicide bombings, hit and run missions and hunting high-profile government officials.^[68]

In December 2007, the Ethiopian troops withdrew from the town of Guriel, and the Islamists controlled Guriel after that. Ethiopia had a big military base there to secure the road linking the two countries.^[69]

By the end of December 2007, the ICU forces had taken control of about half of the port city of Kismayo, around half the districts of Mogadishu, and totalling around 80% of their former territories, leaving the Ethopiean-backed regime in the same precarious situation as it was in Baidoa at the start of 2007.^[70]

2008

A report by AU Commission Chairman Alpha Konare on 18 January claimed that forces opposed to the Somali government have expanded their insurgent activities to areas that were previously peaceful and could be planning attacks in the Middle and Lower Juba regions. Armed elements, it added, were also reported to be using the Lower Shabelle region to ferry arms.^[71]

In February 2008, the Insurgents captured the town of Dinsoor after probing it several times. This marked a change in their strategy which previously focused mainly on the capital Mogadishu.^[72][73][74] In late May after capturing the two towns near Kismayo.^[75] The Insurgents agreed not to attack Kismayo a city ruled by clan militia who took part in the Ethiopian invasion. They agreed to pay 30% to Al-shabab and 30% to the Islamic Courts.^[76] Along with that the Islamists were bold enough to start an Islamic court 90 km away from the capital Mogadishu.^[77]

On March 3, 2008, the United States launched an air strike on Dhoble, a Somali town. US officials claimed the town was held by Islamic extremists, but gave few details to the press.^[78] It was reported that Hassan Turki was in the area. The same area was targeted by US bombers one year earlier.^[79] A successful air strike occurred on May 1 in Dhusamareb. It killed the leader of Al-Shabab Aden Hashi Eyrow along with another senior commander and several civilians. However the attack did nothing to slow down the Insurgency.^[80]

Situation in Somalia in August 2008

After long talks in Djibouti over a ceasefire between the TFG and the moderate islamists of the Alliance for the Reliberation of Somalia, agreement was reached that the parliament would be doubled in size to include 200 representatives of the opposition alliance and 75 representatives of the civil society.^[81] A new president and prime minister would be elected by the new parliament, and a commission to look into crimes of war would be established.^[82] A new constitution was also agreed to be drafted shortly.^[83] In July 2008, Ethiopian soldiers and ICU militants clashed at Beledweyne. The fighting was indecisive, and Ethiopian forces withdrew. According to media reports, 39 ICU insurgents were killed in the fighting, while Ethiopia estimated that 71 militants had been killed. Fiftyf Ethiopian soldiers were also killed. In early December 2008, Ethiopia announced it would withdraw its troops from Somalia shortly, and later announced that it would first help secure the withdrawal of the AMISOM peacekeepers from Burundi and Uganda before withdrawing. The quick withdrawal of the AMISOM peacekeepers was seen as putting additional pressure on the United Nations to provide peacekeeping.^[84]

2009

Somalian troops on December 31, 2008, were seen by civilians packing up supplies and forwarding troop deployments except in the city of Mogadishu. December 31, 2008 was supposed to be when the troops were to withdraw from Somalia but it appears it will be several weeks after the resignation of President Yusuf earlier in December. With a power vacuum growing it is unknown who will capitalize on the situation.^[85] Combat continued throughout January. Fourteen Ethiopian soldiers were killed, mostly in roadside bombings and attacks.

On January 25, 2009, Ethiopian troops completely pulled out of Somalia.^[86] While the Ethiopian government claimed mission accomplished in its effort to give TFG presence in Mogadishu to lead to a coalition government, most saw Ethiopia's intervention was a failure, given the Islamists' quick advance following the Ethiopian withdrawal.

Situation in Somalia in February 2009, following the Ethiopian withdrawal

Al-Shabab captured Baidoa, where the TFG parliament was based, on January 26. Following the collapse of the TFG, pro-TFG moderate Islamist group Ahlu Sunnah continued to fight al-Shabaab and captured a few towns. Moderate Islamist leader Sheikh Sharif Ahmed was elected to become the new President of a United Somali government signaling the end of the Transitional Federal Government marked by the resignation of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed the previous month and a joint unity government of the ARS-TFG. Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, 42, has promised to "forge peace with east African neighbors, tackle rampant piracy offshore and rein in hardline insurgents"^[85][87]. Some, like the deputy major of Mogadishu Abdelfatah, said that the Ethiopian intervention was instrumental in establishing the internationally-recognized government in the capital.^[88] However, most of the territory that came under the control of the new ARS-TFG government was controlled by the moderate wing of the insurgency, the ARS, which was made up mostly of former members of the Islamic Courts Union.

"Analysts say Ahmed has a real possibility of reuniting Somalis, given his Islamist roots, the backing of parliament and a feeling in once hostile Western nations that he should now be given a chance to try to stabilize the Horn of Africa nation"^[87].

New TFG President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed arrived in Mogadishu as a president for the first time on February 7, 2009. The al Shabaab and other radical islamists began firing at the new TFG president hours later. They accuse the new President of accepting the secular transitional government.^[89]

Mediation has begun between the Islamic Party and the Transitional Government of Sharif as well as a growing divide is being reported in the Al Shabaab organization that controls much of southern Somalia as a large number of Al Shabaab leaders that held positions in government during the six month reign of the Islamic Courts Union in 2006 have met behind closed doors with the President of the Transitional Government and the TFG have announced that Sharia law will be implemented in Somalia, but it has not acted on it.^[90][91] TFG President Sharif's moderate Islamist forces and AU troops clashed with the Islamic Party and al Shabaab forces, leading to at least 23 death.^[92] Moderate Islamist and other pro-TFG militias are allegedly being trained by Ethiopia, while the newly formed Islamist Party is established by Eritrea based Sheikh Aweys.

Continuation of the conflict

The withdrawal of Ethiopian troops, and election of the new Islamist leadership, in early 2009 has not brought a conclusion to the conflict. The fighting has now shifted into a struggle between hard line Islamist factions and more moderate factions within the government. The Islamic Courts Union has switched sides. There has been limited involvement by Ethiopia.

Ahlu Sunnah

Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamee'a militias attacked al Shabab islamists in central Somalia including killing an Islamist commander. Ahlu Sunnah clan militias, reportedly armed by Ethiopia, retook control of Galgadud's provincial capital Dhusamareb and the trading town of Guri El in fierce battles that killed upwards of 100 people.^[93]

Consequences

Casualties and displacement

As of December 2008, The Elman Peace and Human Rights Organisation said it had verified that 16,210 civilians had been killed and 29,000 wounded since the start of the insurgency in December 2006.^[94]. In September of that year they had documented 1.9 million displaced civilians from homes in Mogadishu alone during the year 2007.^[19][95] In June 2008, former Somali president Abdi Qasim Salad Hassan suggested that Ethiopian troops killed up to 2000 civilians during the war.^[96]

The Ethiopian military casualties are hard to verify. The Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi announced 500 dead in the initial invasion phase (Dec. 2006 - Jan. 2007).^[97] Hizbul Shabaab's senior commander said to Reuters on December 16, 2007 it had killed nearly 500 Ethiopian soldiers in the insurgency phase.^[98] The casualties of the Islamist and TFG forces are almost impossible to verify. The Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi said that 2,000-3,000 Islamists were killed in the first days of the invasion.^[12]

War crimes

Based on dozens of eyewitness accounts gathered by Human Rights Watch in a six-week research mission to Kenya and Somalia in April and May 2007, plus subsequent interviews and research in June and July, report was released by the HRW that documents the illegal means and methods of warfare allegedly used by all the warring parties and the resulting catastrophic toll on civilians in Mogadishu. In South Mogadishu, dead bodies of women, children and elders as well as animals are scattered on the district's streets and there are no civilians living in Southern Mogadishu as they have moved to Afgoie. Ethiopians soldiers have looted shops including the Bakara market in South Mogadishu. [2] Many Mogadishu residents also complain that Somali soldiers, who are often rarely paid in time or at all, extort money from drivers at checkpoints or openly steal from merchants.^[99]

In a report in May 2008, Amnesty International condemned violence committed on civilians by all warring parties, especially the Ethiopians. According to it, witnesses told Amnesty International of an increasing incidence of what it locally termed as “slaughtering” or “killing like goats” by Ethiopian troops, referring to killing by slitting the throat. The victims of these killings are often left lying in pools of blood in the streets until armed fighters, including snipers, move out of the area and relatives can collect their bodies.^[100] Such crimes were exposed after the alleged Hidaya Mosque massacre, which occurred on April 20, 2008 and saw Ethiopian troops slaughtering civilians according to AI.

Repression of press freedom

An Amnesty International report released in March 2008 stated that "journalists in Somalia were being killed for reporting the truth about the country's bloody conflict, according to research by Amnesty International." At least nine journalists were killed since February 2007, five of them in intentionally targeted attacks. Many more were threatened, arbitrarily arrested and harassed. Over 50 journalists fled the country. The crackdown on independent media saw newspapers and radio stations forcibly shut down.^[101]

In 2007, these closures were steadily increasing in duration, with Shabelle Radio and Simba Radio closed from November 12 until December 3 by the Governor of Banadir Region and Mayor of Mogadishu, Mohamed Dheere.^[101]

Coalition government

Prime Minister Nur Hassan of the transitional government and Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed of opposition group Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) signed a power sharing deal in Djibouti that was brokered by the United Nations. According to the deal, Ethiopian troops withdrew from Somalia, giving their bases to the transitional government, African Union (AU) peacekeepers and moderate Islamist groups led by ARS. Following the Ethiopian withdrawal, the transitional government expanded its parliament to include the opposition and elected Sheikh Ahmed as its new president on January 31, 2009.

Suicide attacks

Islamist fighters in Somalia opened a completely new aspect to the Somali Civil War: suicide attacks. Here is a list of reported attacks:

• In late 2006, two suicide bombings were reported in Baidoa, where the government was stationed at the time.
• At the start of April 2007, Al-Jazeera TV aired footage of a Somali man, speaking in Arabic and reciting Koranic verses. They then showed an SUV full of what appeared to be explosives driving towards an Ethiopian compound, followed by a large explosion.
• At least one person blew himself up on April 19, 2007, near an Ethiopian military compound. A bystander stated that at least two Ethiopian vehicles entering the compound were "destroyed to small pieces".^[102]
• On April 24, a suicide bomber attacked an Ethiopian compound in Afgoye, 30 km south of Mogadishu. No one else was killed.^[103]
• On April 25, 11 people were killed in a suicide attack on a major hotel around KM4 roundabout, south of Mogadishu where the Somali government officials are based.^[104]
• On June 3, a truck bomb exploded outside the home of the Somali interim prime minister, Ali Mohamed Ghedi. At least six people were killed and 10 injured - most of them bodyguards.^[105]
• On October 11, 2007, Two Ethiopian soldiers were killed by a car bomb in the Somali town of Baidoa. The bomber's target was an Ethiopian military post close to the hotel where the prime minister, Ali Mohamed Ghedi, was staying.^[106]
• On April 8, 2008, a Toyota pickup truck loaded with explosives struck a gated checkpoint where African Union peacekeepers stood guard, killing the suicide bomber and a peacekeeper from Burundi, sources said.^[107][108]
• On February 22, 2009, al-Shabaab carried out a suicide car bomb attack against an African Union military base in Mogadishu, killing at least 11 Burundian peacekeepers.^[109]
• On December 3, 2009, an Al-Shabaab militant dressed as a woman entered a medical school graduation ceremony and blew himself up killing 23 people including three ministers of the Transitional Federal Government.^[110][111]

Weapons

The Ethiopian Army is equipped with predominantly Soviet-made weapons while TFG and Islamic weapons vary, having mostly small arms. The following table should not be considered exhaustive.

Key men

Transitional Federal Government (TFG)

An August 24, 2006 article in the Sudan Tribune^[114] identified several warlords involved with TFG military units:

• Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed – TFG president, former leader of the SSDF.
• Mohamed Omar Habeeb (Mohamed Dheere) – controlled Jowhar region with the help of Ethiopia; after losing in Mogadishu as part of the ARPCT, regrouped his militia in Ethiopia and since returned (see Battle of Jowhar).
• Muuse Suudi Yalahow – Controlled Medina District in Mogadishu but was forced to flee by the ICU. Has since returned to the city.
• Hussein Mohamed Farrah – son of late General Mohamed Farrah Aidid. Although his father was a key anti-U.N. force in the mid-1990s, Farrah is a naturalized U.S. citizen and former U.S. Marine who controlled Villa Somalia. Former leader of the SRRC militia. The Sudan Tribune says Farrah is in the patronage of Ethiopia, and Western interests see him as their best hope to improve Somali-Western relations.
• Abdi Hasan Awale Qeybdiid – former finance minister under Gen. Aidid; arrested in Sweden for warcrimes, but later released due to lack of evidence.
• Colonel Hasan Muhammad Nur Shatigadud – affiliated with the Rahanweyn Resistance Army (RRA). Came to power after his militia (with the help of Ethiopian paramilitary forces) drove out Aidid's militia from Baidoa, which became the seat of the transitional government. Currently TFG Minister of Finance.
• Mohamed Qanyare Afrah – former Security Minister and member of ARPCT
• Barre Aadan Shire "Hiiraale" – leader of the Juba Valley Alliance (JVA); controls Kismayo (and until its loss to the ICU, Marka region).
• Hassan Abdullah Qalaad

Islamic Court Union (ICU)

• Sharif Ahmed, head of the ICU executive committee
• Hassan Dahir Aweys, head of the ICU shura council, former Somali colonel, listed by the U.S. as a terrorist for heading Osama bin Laden-supported Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya in the 1990s.
• Hassan Abdullah Hersi al-Turki, led forces which captured Juba Valley, on U.S. terrorist list for taking over the leadership of Aweys' group
• Abu Taha al-Sudan, reported to have led the ICU troops in the Battle of Baidoa, former Al-Itihaad al-Islamiya, wanted by the U.S. as the financier of the 1998 United States embassy bombings and involvement in the 2002 Mombasa hotel bombing
• Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, listed as a terrorist by the U.S. for reported involvement in the 2002 Mombasa hotel bombing, said to have been a target of the U.S. AC-130 raid in January 2007
• Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, listed as a terrorist by the U.S. for reported involvement in the 1998 U.S. embassy bombings. Some sources claim that he was a target of the U.S. AC-130 raid. His death by the AC-130 raid was later reported by Somali authorities, but denied by US officials.
• Aden Hashi Farah "Eyrow", led commandos of the ICU's Hizbul Shabaab movement against Ethiopian-backed forces in the Battle of Baidoa, before fleeing and being targeted by the U.S. AC-130 raid that killed eight people on January 8, 2007. Was named Al-Qaeda's leader in Somalia in March, 2007. He was killed in a U.S. air strike on the May 1, 2008.

See also

• List of wars 2003-current
• 2006 timeline of the War in Somalia
• 2007 timeline of the War in Somalia
• 2008 timeline of the War in Somalia
• 2009 timeline of the War in Somalia
• War in Somalia (2009–)

References